With several states and a number of utilities adopting decarbonization goals, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) may find a role in an energy transition as coal and gas plants retrofitted with either technology could continue to operate. What is the 45Q tax credit? 45Q is a performance-based tax […]
California’s Natural Gas Challenge
California finding it difficult to get past natural gas In late 2019, Southern California Edison released “Pathway 2045”, its report on how the utility will meet the state’s aggressive carbon reduction mandates. Just over a year earlier, then-Governor Gavin Jerry Brown (D) signed into law S.B. 100, which accelerated the state’s existing renewable portfolio standard […]
EVA Expects Coal Burn to Reach 470 Million Tons in 2020
NATIONAL TAKE-AWAYS After a warmer-than-expected winter, natural gas is expected to continue to take market share from coal resources through 2020. EVA’s March 2020 Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook draws the following high-level conclusions: January coal burn dropped by nearly 20 million tons YoY, the largest monthly drop recorded in recent history. Weak electricity […]
Newly-Introduced Illinois Bill Seeks to Repeal Exelon Nuclear Subsidies
A bipartisan bill (H.B. 3987) filed by two Illinois state representatives on December 9 would effectively repeal a subsidy that Exelon receives via the sale of Zero Emission Credits (ZEC) by granting an exception to customers of electric utilities that serve more than three million retail customers in the state. If the bill is signed […]
EVA and NGSA Release Winter Natural Gas Outlook
EVA worked closely with staff at Natural Gas Supply Association to produce a Winter Natural Gas Outlook for 2019-2020. Top line findings from the NGSA’s Winter Natural Gas Outlook include: U.S. natural gas supply and demand for 2019-2020 winter are both forecasted to experience substantial growth winter-over-winter. Total gas production is expected to grow 3.8 […]
EVA Forecasts Strong Exports and Industrial Demand to Underpin Record-Setting Gas Demand this Summer
On May 30, 2018, Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released their 2019 Summer Outlook for Natural Gas, which was prepared by Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA). According to EVA’s forecast, remarkable demand growth for the upcoming summer will be matched by record-setting production, resulting in flat price expectations summer-over-summer. Summer 2019 begins with a 1.13 TCF […]
Gas and Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook: ERCOT Spotlight
National Summary: Gas burn in February actualizing at a record 27.35 BCFD, nearly 0.6 BCFD higher than in January and 2.4 BCFD higher YoY. Coal burn was relatively flat YoY for February, while hydro generation declined by 13.5% from last year. Exhibit seven demonstrates that gas burn is expected to remain around 27 BCFD through […]
Commentary on the Gas Week 3/14 Storage Report
This morning EIA announced a 47 BCF withdrawal for gas week ending 3/14. This storage draw brings U.S. total working gas down to 1,143 BCF, with the deficit to the 5-year average narrowing from 569 BCF to 556 BCF. This is the first time we’ve saw below average withdrawal in a month. In this week’s […]
2018 Coal Burn at 644 Million Tons, Gas Burn at ~29 BCFD
EVA’s Monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook forecasts that 2018 will end with Lower-48 coal burn at 644 million tons. 2017 annual power-sector coal burn was 666 million tons– 22 million tons more than in 2018. Going into September, coal burn was expected to fall by 25 million tons YoY. However, higher cash and […]