EVA has published its most recent issue of the Quarterly Renewable Energy Outlook. The Quarterly Renewable Energy Outlook offers subscribers a succinct and compelling overview of current trends in renewable energy development in the U.S., delivered with clear and objective analysis. The Outlook provides short-term (3-year), state-by-state renewable energy capacity forecasts, broken out by technology type. It offers deep but concise insight into the major trends driving new capacity installations, including evaluation of technology cost reductions, performance improvements and notable state and federal policy changes.
Highlights from the Q2 Outlook include:
- Despite the PTC falling (to 80%) this year, strong wind builds continue, especially in Texas, where there is 4.6 GW under construction.
- In California, strong hydro output plus a sharp rise in solar generation led to negative daytime prices and solar curtailment. The actual impact was modest, but offers a hint of future dynamics
- Utility solar costs are now at ~$1.40/Watt (AC), with some reporting as low as $1/W, but the Suniva bankruptcy case could result in high import tariffs on panels and thus higher development costs and lower capacity additions. It is difficult to predict the outcome (the decision will ultimately come to Trump) but EVA believes the request will most likely be denied
- Throughout PJM and ISONE, REC/SREC prices are crashing due to a considerable supply overhang, which is likely to persist through next year at least.
- The DG (rooftop PV) growth rate slowed a bit through early-2017, but retail NEM was restored in Nevada, demonstrating the increased political clout of the solar industry.
- The California legislature is seriously considering a 100% RPS by 2045….though it’s just an “aspirational target” and not a legal mandate
For any questions about EVA’s Quarterly Renewable Energy Outlook, please contact our lead Renewable Energy analyst, Dustin Meyer, at [email protected]. Or, read more about our suite of Renewable Energy products here: https://www.evainc.com/renewable-energy/