After last month’s issue of the long-awaited Executive Order (EO) on “Promoting Energy Independence” (see March Newsletter), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) headed by Administrator Scott Pruitt is in full force to undo some of the regulations supporting the “War on Coal.” As part of his EO issued last month, President Trump requested that the […]
Quick Trip: Despite increasing pipeline connections, Mexico emerges as the largest importer of U.S. LNG
As of late-April, Sabine Pass has exported more than 100 LNG cargoes to 17 different countries. Regionally, the shipments have been split almost equally between South American, Asian and Middle Eastern markets, fluctuating based on seasonal demand. Yet somewhat unexpectedly, the single largest importer of U.S. LNG is the country that would otherwise seem to […]
‘Tis the Season for Curtailment: Amid low seasonal demand, California tests the limits of renewable energy penetration
After suffering through several years of severe drought, California experienced record rainfall in late-2016 and early-2017, sufficient to fill previously depleted reservoirs. Simultaneously, the state brought on an additional 5.3 GW of solar capacity in 2016, bringing the total to 10.3 GW to go along with 5.7 GW of wind capacity. As a result, renewable […]
OPEC Cuts Production, but Change in Global Supply Muted
At the halfway point in OPEC’s six-month plan to reduce global supplies, the 11 participating OPEC members have reduced production 1.35 million barrels per day (MMBD) from Oct. levels. However, those production cuts have been partially offset by increases elsewhere in the world. This newsletter provides a granular assessment of these offsetting variances and addresses […]
Canadian Gas Imports: A Reversal in Trends
For the seven year period from 2008 to 2014 net Canadian exports to the U.S. were declining (i.e., 3.9 BCFD, or 43%). However, in 2015 and 2016 this trend was reversed. This newsletter examines both the underlying drivers behind this reversal in trends and the intermediate-term outlook for Canadian imports. Regional Assessment: Northeast Declines, While […]
RPS Compliance in PJM Markets: More flexibility than meets the eye
The PJM powerpool includes several states with sizeable Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). The standards—in MD, NJ, OH, PA, IL, DE and DC—require an escalating portion of retail sales be met through qualified renewable energy (RE) generation. Load serving entities in the PJM region comply with their relevant RPS obligations via Renewable Energy Credits (RECs), which […]
President Trump Issues Long-Awaited Executive Order on “Promoting Energy Independence”
On March 28, President Trump signed a highly anticipated Executive Order that will significantly impact future and existing environmental regulations. While media rumors regarding the content of the Executive Order were for the most part correct, the implications of this administrative action remain to be seen. President Trump’s “Executive Order on Promoting Energy Independence and […]
Natural Gas Markets Tighten Setting the Stage for a Price Surge
Arlington, Virginia – EVA has released its monthly forecast of the U.S. natural gas markets with related prices for March. The exceptionally mild 2016/2017 winter masked a relatively narrow supply and demand balance. The correspondingly lower winter prices has restrained—to a degree—upstream investment priming the market for serious tightness heading into the summer. However, the […]
Steady Summer Flows: Global price differentials tighten heading into summer, but not enough to shut-in Sabine Pass
Since beginning operations in February 2016, exports from Sabine Pass LNG on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana have flowed at high utilization rates. More than 100 cargoes have already been shipped from the terminal and besides a 3-week shutdown for scheduled maintenance in November, the project has operated at near full capacity. The high output […]
Equal Demand Reaction? Sagging U.S. gasoline demand may thwart OPEC’s efforts to balance markets
The key premise of OPEC’s plan to balance oil markets was that reduced production, combined with increasing global oil demand, would erode excess supply. While the supply cuts have proceeded largely as planned, global oil demand remains an outstanding question. Most demand expectations for 2017 were already rather modest, ranging around 1.1 MMBD, or 1.1% […]