Arlington, Virginia – March 3, 2017.

Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) today published a report evaluating the future of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States. The report, Outlook for Electric Vehicles in the U.S., reviews the current status of the EV market and evaluates the uncertainties surrounding the emerging technology and relevant regulations. In the past, EVs have largely failed to live up to the hype, but this report concludes that significant cost declines and strong policy support have now positioned EVs for considerable growth. In its base case scenario, EVA projects that EVs will rise to 14% of new automobile sales by 2035, up from about 1% in 2016.

The report also includes alternative high and low penetration scenarios for EVs. For each of the three scenarios, the report projects the changes in electricity, petroleum, and natural gas demand associated with rising demand for EVs. Notably, the high case, which assumes greater availability of autonomous EVs, projects EV market share increasing to as much as 30% of new auto sales by 2035.

The demonstrated improvements in the cost and performance of the underlying EV technology have greatly diminished concerns among potential consumers, especially regarding range and power. Further, with dozens of different EV models set to hit the market in coming years, consumers are being presented with an array of viable and attractive options that could convince many to move away from fossil-fueled vehicles.

The report was published as part of EVA’s ongoing FUELCAST Special Report series. For more information on this report, or other FUELCAST Special Reports, please contact [email protected]