Natural Gas Price Forecast

Since the deregulation of the natural gas industry and the subsequent court cases in the mid-to-late 1980’s, the U.S. natural gas industry has gone through three major pricing eras, with the current era being due to the ‘game changing’ shales.

For over 30 years EVA has tracked the key determinants of U.S. gas prices and prepared a number of industry publications on the structure and key attributes of natural gas prices, some of which are noted below.  Also, included in EVA’s tracking of natural gas prices are (1) detailed assessments of regional basis differentials, which are critical to assessing the final delivered price of natural gas, and (2) tracking of global gas prices, which can range from $0.20 to $20 per MMBTU.

With respect to regional basis differentials, EVA tracks over 70 of the current 94 gas pricing points within the North American market and maintains a regional basis differential model that is used to assess the long-term outlook for the basis differentials at various pricing points.  A critical component to EVA’s regional basis differential model is EVA’s tracking of the changes occurring to the natural gas industry’s pipeline infrastructure.

With respect to global gas prices, which range from heavily subsidized to oil-linked to free market to hybrid pricing systems, EVA maintains a tracking system for the gas prices in 30 countries.  In addition, EVA, upon more than one occasion, has addressed the challenging and debatable issue on whether the expansion in the global LNG market and the development of international shales could in time lead to a single global gas price.

Publications

  • Natural Gas Price Uncertainty: Establishing Price Floors, EPRI 1012249.
  • Gas Market Transition: Impacts of Power Generation on Gas Pricing Dynamics, EPRI 1008329.
  • Natural Gas price Forecasts and Planning Uncertainty, EPRI 1010251.
  • Characteristics of Natural Gas Trading and Exchanges, EPRI 1016790.
  • Fuel and Power Price Volatilities and Convergence, ERPI TR-111564.

Periodic Multi-Client Publications

  • FUELCAST (Volumes I and II)
  • Quarterly Natural Gas Report
  • Monthly Natural Gas Report